Declan Walsh

Fri 8 January 2021 12:56, UK

Everton fans may be expecting Carlo Ancelotti’s side to roll over Championship strugglers Rotherham and progress to the fourth round of the FA Cup this weekend. However, it may not be so simple for the highly-flying Toffees.

Our panel of Everton Super Fans said this week that they would love to see the Blues have a good go at winning the cup this season with Ancelotti’s men doing so well in the Premier League. And, when you’re handed a clash at home against second-from-bottom Championship side Rotherham, you would expect a straightforward win.

However, both Everton’s and Rotherham’s performances in certain games this season might suggest that this will be anything but a routine victory for the Merseyside club.

Everton have struggled against more defensive teams in the Premier League this season with West Ham, Burnley and Newcastle taking seven points off the Toffees between them despite having a lower possession statistic.

Ancelotti has also seen his players struggle against teams who like to pressure opponents. Leeds and Southampton have both also beaten the Blues this term and stats by Wyscout show the Whites [8.2] and the Saints [7] rank first and second for challenge intensity in the Premier League.

Newcastle, interestingly, also rank highest for PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) [21.95] and beat Everton too.

All the stats about Rotherham suggest they could be difficult for Everton to break down on Saturday in a similar way the Blues struggled versus West Ham, Newcastle, Burnley, Leeds and Southampton.

Stats by Wyscout show that although Rotherham are 23rd in the Championship, they rank 15th for xGA (expected goals against) at 29. The Millers also rank 18th for possession [46.5%].

They’re happy to sit back, soak up pressure and defend because they know that there are teams in the second-tier who’ll be able to tear them apart if they open themselves up too much.

However, Paul Warne’s men don’t like to give their opposition much time on the ball in the same way Leeds and Southampton don’t.

Despite their lowly position, Rotherham have the highest challenge intensity in the Championship [7.9] and lowest PPDA [7.97]. The Yorkshire club loves to apply pressure.

Below is an image which shows Rotherham’s high press and ability to put opposition players under pressure in their recent defeat to Barnsley.

You can see the Rotherham player already charging towards the Barnsley man.

The Rotherham player ends up blocking the Barnsley player’s clearance and forces the ball out for a throw-in high up the pitch.

Below is an example of what Rotherham do when teams have throw-ins high up the pitch in their 2-1 loss to free-scoring Blackburn at Ewood Park.

The Millers have every Blackburn player marked who’s near the throw-in taker plus an extra man in the penalty area and an extra man down the line.

Blackburn end up having to boot the ball clear after the throw-in because of the high intensity of Rotherham’s pressure.

However, Rotherham’s pressure doesn’t stop there as they continue to harry Rovers players on the other side of the pitch and force them back towards their own goal.

Blackburn end up clearing the ball and losing possession to the away side.

Everton cannot underestimate Rotherham on Saturday at Goodison Park.

Ancelotti is bound to make a number of changes to his starting line-up in order to rest key players and also hand some of his lesser-used players a chance to shine.

But the Millers will go into this game knowing that nothing is expected of them and that their style of play has seen Everton stumped this season in the Premier League.

Ancelotti needs to prepare properly for this kind of threat but we hope that he and his players have enough to be able to win comfortably.

In other Everton news, Kevin Campbell has delivered his thoughts on James Rodriguez’s return from injury.