Everton’s ‘real’ Premier League position revealed by supercomputer after late-season collapse
Everton disappointingly missed out on a place in any of the European competitions after a poor end to the 2025-26 Premier League season.
The Toffees failed to win any of their final seven matches following March’s international break and finished down in 13th place.
Everton were even in contention for a top-five finish and Champions League football at one point, but they took just three points from the last 21 on offer.
David Moyes admitted to being disappointed at the manner in which his side fell off, with Bournemouth, Sunderland and Brighton claiming the other Euro spots.
And a supercomputer has now revealed exactly where Everton should have finished based on their expected goals (xG) in each game.
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Everton should have finished lower than 13th
Four more points from those last six games would have been enough for Everton to qualify for European football.
Or in other words, had they defeated three of Liverpool, Brentford, West Ham, Man City, Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Tottenham, they would have done enough.
| Everton’s actual season | Everton’s expected season |
| 13th | 14th |
| 49 points | 46 points |
That is why Moyes was so disappointed, having not shied away from the fact he was targeting the top eight this season.
As per Opta Analyst, 13th was not far off where Everton were expected to finish this season when looking at the underlying numbers.
Based on a model that simulates the number of goals scored by each side in a match based on xG, with each game simulated 10,000 times, Everton should have finished one place worse off in 14th.
Rather than accumulating 49 points, Everton would have had 46 points based on how games panned out.
While it is easy to scoff at this, this is effectively a way or backing up those who say ‘we should have won that game’.
Basically, the Toffees took slightly more points than they merited.
Everton miss out on extra millions
Everton landed themselves £147.7million in prize money by finishing 13th, but that sum could have been consierably higher.
Even not accounting for the money that comes with qualifying for the Europa League or Conference League, Everton could have brought in an extra £20m by finishing where Sunderland did.
Even finishing one place higher would have been worth a little over £6m more, which The Friedkin Group will no doubt be aware of.
All Moyes can do is ensure Everton are in a position to make sure this fall-off does not carry into next season.
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